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THE TRUTH ABOUT NATIONAL STATISTICS WITH JOHN PRING

National Statistics typically refer to data and information collected and published by Government agents and other national organisations.  These agencies are responsible for gathering, analysing, and disseminating information about various aspects of a country’s economy, population, society, and more. However, when it comes to the property market, the statistics we all see on portals such as Rightmove are not as accurate as you probably first think. We asked our Director, John Pring, to share some words on the subject... John, it’s over to you...

JOHN PRING

"Everybody always asks “What is happening to the property market” as soon as they know I am an Estate Agent. What they really mean is are prices going up or down.  The message most people do not want to hear is how the market works, this is understandable as someone’s home and value is emotive; they have pored  money and love into their home and do not want to think in terms of reducing everything to pounds.

There is no exact value; even mortgage valuers are only expressing an opinion based on known facts. As far as the Property Market is concerned, this hinges on finalised transactions referred to as comparables. These are either a similar property or any difference with a monitory value. These comparables involve either a property with similar characteristics or any variances quantified in monetary terms.

Because your home is emotive and the market is not, the first lesson is that there are no bad markets. You care, but the market does not .  The property market is like any normal market obeying the rules of supply and demand; just the same as petrol, gold or shares.

There are 3 types of off Property Market and it is important to understand what they are:

1. A sellers market:  too many buyers chasing too few properties  Prices go up based on demand. Think of the price rises after covid with the Land Tax Stamp Duty holiday.

2.  A buyers market: Too many properties for sale, not enough buyers leading to too much choice for buyers.  Prices move downwards in this case.

3. A balanced market: number of properties for sale equals the number of buyers. This is market stability.

The next consideration in understanding the market is to look at the information that is public. All markets are based on information, statistics and sentiment. The point I wish to make here is that the Government, Institutions and Journalists all love to quote National Statistics. The property market is very local and National Statistics do not relate to your postcode, or even your town. The market information on Rightmove is only a guide to the number of properties for sale or subject to contract.

Rightmove’s property index shows percentage movements up or down, but is based on asking prices, not sale prices. To know the sale price, the only way aside from having knowledge of the sale is to wait for the Land Registry to publish the completed transaction on their real time website. But real time means just that; only when the solicitor registers the title will the sale and price appear, this can sometimes be several months later. It’s important to mention that the Land Registry provides insightful reports on postcodes, but it becomes less informative when it comes to property types due to the inclusion of averages. For instance, the term “detached” encompasses a broad range, including one-bedroom bungalows and six-bedroom houses, making the average less meaningful in this context.

To accurately gauge the current value of your home, consider engaging in a conversation with your local agent during their free valuation appointment. Take the opportunity to discuss the comparables they rely on, focusing specifically on sold properties rather than those currently listed for sale, as the latter represent competition in the market.

I hope that my words have provided you with insight into the topic. Remember, “there  is more to selling houses than selling houses”!"